Where is Egypt going ??

There is a conflict between the political parties in Egypt now over the so called ” Higher constitutional principles “. This principles was an attempt proposed by the government weeks ago. The government is trying to implement some kind of common agreed principles (Like human rights, protection of minorities, having a civil country). One of the main points in this draft is forming some regulations for choosing the committee that would write the new constitution; making sure it would include representatives from each and every community in Egypt (Judges, lawyers, workers, al azhar, the church, Etc….. ). This draft is to be used by whoever wins the coming parliament elections in writing the new constitution for Egypt. Let me try to make it as simple as it should be, we have two teams here:

Team A)

• Line up: Islamic parties (Muslim brother hood & salafiys) & some of the conservative and fundamentalists .

• Back ground: The Islamic parties think that they would have the majority of votes, this is due to their existence for years as the main opposition party, and the most important reason is due to the religious nature of the Egyptians and the strong appearances of the Muslim brother hood among the people. Sometimes also Due to poverty and lack of education in some parts of Egypt, some of the Islamic imams are always imposing on people that voting for a liberal in the elections is a sin! So basically most of the forecasts for the coming elections are confirming having a majority of Islamic parties in the parliament.

• Strategy : by having no obligating “Higher constitutional Principles”; The party which is going to have the majority of seats in the parliament ( AKA : Muslim brotherhood ) would have the absolute right to form the new ( long waiting ) constitution. Which would basically direct Egypt for the coming 50 years or more. Their main point of argument is that this “above constitutional points” would be against people’s well. They believe that the elected parliament has the only power to form the constitution.

Team B)

• Line up : Liberals, left wing and the majority of the other political parties in Egypt.

• Back ground: They believe they made a bigger effort in calling for 25^th revolution that removed the old corrupted regime; their efforts unfortunately would not be reflected in the coming parliament due to their lack of popularity between Egyptian voters compared to Islamic parties.

• Strategy: They hope to implement the “Higher constitutional Principles”. they hope to have some commonly agreed principles to save the coming constitution from any ruling party.

Basic assumptions:

• - There are 2 points in this proposed “Higher constitutional principles” that give the military huge benefits, my analysis is based on the fact that “ NO FRAKIN WAY “ they can go forward with this 2 points. We would keep pressuring until they remove it and they well remove it. the proposed draft needs to change.

• - El salmy “ the government’s guy responsible for the draft" claimed that after drafting this “ principles “ it would be included in a referendum where people can vote. So all the claims that having this principles is against democracy would be a huge nonsense.

• We are all against the government and the military for their shameful performance in this critical few months, but we don't have to refuse that Draft just because it's coming from them.

RESULTS:

No “Higher constitution principles”

• Scenario A : Muslim brotherhood ( a moderate Muslim party ) would win the elections, they would form the new constitution. Let’s say they would kept their promise of keeping Egypt as a civil country. It would make sense that they would make sure that the new constitution would keep them in power as long as its possible. Once they get this absolute power, we can all figure out what would happen based on the very well-known statement (ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS). They have the parliament, constitution, government and media! ( In Malaysia for example BN” The coalition that helped in forming the constitution” is in power for 50 years now and counting.)

• Scenario B : The Salafy ( conservative Muslim party ) might get the majority in the parliament, I don’t have to forecast here what they might do. One thing I know is that they would cancel the word democracy ( elly fash5en dma3’na byha delwa2ty!!) from the constitution and put the world ( Quran) as an Absolute power. Quran is the most sacred thing on earth for me. But unfortunately it’s their interpretation of Quran that they would use. Saudi Arabia or Somalia can give a better picture for what we can expect. I have to say that the Islamic religion’s perfection and purity is far away from what these countries implementing.

• Scenario C : ( it’s a hypothetical scenario for those who thinks that absolute democracy is the only word in politics ) What if the old corrupted Mubarak’s party came back with a good percentage in the parliament, forming the new constitution, and then we can all join ( you just got punk'd ).

The following Scenario is based on : Yes “above constitution principles”

• Scenario D: The negotiations with the government and all the political parties would give us the most well accepted draft. Get the people’s votes in a referendum. Who ever won the majority in the coming parliament would be obliged by these rules. They would have to include representatives from Egypt’s communities and different back ground in the committee to form our new constitution. Muslim brotherhood might win the majority and form the new government, but in this case they would be controlled by a strong constitution that represents all Egyptians from different backgrounds ( same case as in turkey ). They can rule for as long as they are moving us ahead, I believe they are capable of doing that if they don’t have absolute power.

• Scenario E: If the Islamic parties didn't set down and negotiate, There is also a very possible chance that the military would implement this draft either way, and we would all lose if they did it without changing it.

So which scenario you want for Egypt?................................

If the Islamic parties kept refusing to negotiate even after including these 2 points:

- No military benefits.

- There must be a referendum to be a democratic process.

Then I would be naïve to think they don’t have a special agenda for our new constitution. Please if anyone can help me to understand why would someone refuse to implement this draft based on the mentioned assumptions, please do.

I wish the Islamic parties can set, talk, negotiate and force the government to implement the points i mentioned earlier instead of continuing their arrogant tone and wasting all our efforts, this is not islamophobia... it's common sense!! ..... wa allah el mowafak…….

P.S:

I cant forget when the Islamic parties were calling for " stability " "smooth transition of power" & " Yes for stability of the economy" " no for a presidency council" when everything were going in their favour!!, they almost didn't participate in any of the million marches against the military in the first weeks!!!! . Now when things changed; el 3wa is calling for civil disobedience & and 7azem abo ismail finally found his revolutionary spirit!!!!! and back then when we called for a presidency council, they were the first people opposing it!!! its just funny!!